Last night, when watching my TV, I had a strange memory about how I felt during the time of the Fukushima reactor accident, almost exactly 11 years ago. If you were already adult in those days: do you remember how you felt during that time? I mean the couple of days when the tsunami has already struck, and the reactor cooling system is destroyed, but there’s a day of quiet, and another, and another, and all experts say the core melt will happen, but it hasn’t happened yet. And everybody keeps in a state of somewhat unrealistic hope, but ultimately, the catastrophe seems unstoppable, so all the world, laymen and all TEPCO specialists, can only watch in a dazzled feeling of shock and horror until finally, a few days after the tsunami, the first reactor blows up in a cloud, then the second, then the third, and the final one. If you have seen it in 2011, I am sure you can vividly recall the looks.
In my TRIZ lecture I sometimes invite students to an exercise where we imagine the events of these horrific Fukushima days. In the exercise, we apply TRIZ methods in order to suggest practical ideas for the immediate hours and days after the tsunami, when the worst has not happened yet. And every other year students keep presenting fine and applicable ideas that at least in my opinion, have a pretty high chance of success to prevent the reactor cores from melting. Sometimes we do a little different modification of the same exercise. This time, students imagine to be passengers of the Titanic during the last hours after the iceberg has crashed the hull. There is only a few minutes available to develop ideas how to save their own lives, how to save the lives of all souls aboard, and how to even save the vessel from sinking. And with a clear mind and by use of TRIZ, they usually succeed in solving all three tasks, every single year. So again, yesterday I was reminded of my own emotions during the Fukushima event, and you can, of course, easily tell what program I was watching.
But yesterday, after I discovered and identified the memory of that Fukushima feeling, I also remembered TRIZ, and so I sat down for a few minutes to see if not TRIZ could help suggesting some ideas for what can still be done during this almost hopeless situation with Ukraine being crushed and raped by the aggression from its Russion neighbor. And TRIZ suggested a possible solution, and it was “parameter change”.
So, I sorted out all my grief and shock and negative emotions after watching the news, and I asked myself, how can “parameter change” possibly help the fate of Ukrainians? And the more I thought about it, I was stunned to see a possible solution developing right before my eyes.
Before I explain it, we just need to remember what the initial situation is. Here we see a completely ruthless Woshd in his Kremlin, who doesn’t seem to care too much if the war costs the lives of another 5,000 of his own troops, or 50,000, or 250,000. At the same time, we need to remember that this man is certainly nothing less than mad, but instead, is a professionally trained mastermind who has studied and absorbed all the finest KGB patterns and strategies. So, we have a man where we can be sure of one thing: if we let the war go the way he planned it, every single aspect of it, he will win.
However, and this is the moment when “parameter change” comes into the game, Ukraine and the world do not have to follow the rules he has designed for them to follow. Instead, something in his equation needs to be modified in a way he has not foreseen. To me, it is clear what this change could be. Ukraine can try and invert the role of the Russian people. They can try to make them their allies, not Putins resources anymore. In order to do so, the Russian people must know what is going on. They must be confronted with the shocking fact that Russia is at very dirty war against Ukraine, for no noble reasons at all but 19th century style power politics. Obviously Putin’s propaganda seems currently quite successful to hide this from the Russian public. But this is exactly what his weakness is. Ukraine and the rest of the world cannot withstand the military power of Russia for long. But the Russian people cannot withstand the truth.
“Parameter change”: Whereas all the world thinks that the main frontline for Ukraine is at home, defending in a heroic way against the aggression as good as they can, we must remember that this is way Putin planned it. But the real key for Ukrainian defence is not in the Ukraine at all. It is in Russia. There is only one solution: Putin led Russia into this war. Only Russia can end it, even though not necessarily represented by the person of Putin anymore.
But how can Ukraine make Russians know, if Putin’s propaganda is so effective? I see only one way, certainly not a nice one but better than any alternatives. In addition to the Ukrainian frontline, there needs to be a frontline in Russia as well. A frontline that cannot be hidden or misinterpreted by propaganda, but is clearly visible and present in every news bulletin on the Russian media and to every Russian, very much the same as the horrible images from Ukraine now on the screens of the free world.
Putin took Ukraine to war. Not even Russia will deny the natural right of Ukraine to take the war scene back to where it came from. Of course, Ukraine cannot attack directly with military divisions. They wouldn’t have the slightest chance. But they can use guerrilla tactics. Partisan tactics. Ukrainians can swim like fish in the ocean of the Russian culture.
What Ukraine can do relatively easily is to use the very close cultural relation to activate all the (potential) friends in Russia. Let them operate pinprick actions all over the vast wideness of the country (another resource of Putin than can be turned into a weapon for Ukraine). Let them try to focus on government controlled infrastructure in Russia. Town halls. Bridges. Other infrastructure, at night when nobody is present and will get harmed. Try to avoid any civil damage or human casualties. Leave a clear mark who has done it, why it needed to be done. Explain how you tried to keep damage away from people and private property, and that all this is nothing else but the desperate call for help to all Russians. Ask anybody in the brother people, to open their eyes and judge for themselves if they can accept what’s going on. Not only in Ukraine, but also with the damage, human and economic, that this war puts on the Russian people itself. The national character of the great Russian people is often described to be of an almost unlimited patience with their leadership. I’m pretty sure that’s how Putin has calculated it. But, as history shows, when the fury of the Russian bear awakens, he should better run.
This is the chance that I see the Ukraine can take: Parameter change.
Bert Miecznik, 01.03.2022
Bert hat 20+ Jahre Erfahrung im operativen Innovationsmanagement von B2B Unternehmen, insbesondere im Maschinen- und Anlagenbau. Er ist seit vielen Jahren ebenfalls als Trainer und Dozent für Kreativitäts- und Innovationsmethoden in verschiedenen Firmen und Hochschulen aktiv.
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